Spending on local mobile advertising in the US will increase from $ 700 million in 2011 to $ 1.2 billion in 2012, according to the BIA / Kelsey study. Although the figure is slightly lower than originally forecast in April this year, the forecast for 2016 is expected to more than quadruple this figure, reaching 5.8 billion billing.
This new forecast for 2016 leaves far behind the figure forecast earlier this year of 5 billion. BIA / Kelsey justifies the fall this year in a slower adoption by advertisers, but expects a significant increase in demand in the coming years.
All other media (TV, printed publications, yellow pages, online / interactive) will also receive their incremental share in local advertising, but not at the same pace as the mobile. The volume of advertising investment in these media reached 132.1 billion in 2011, and in 2012 will have a slight growth of less than 1%, reaching 133.4 billion. The BIA / Kelsey forecast is that in 2016 the figure will reach 141.3 billion.
In summary, the investment in local mobile advertising in the US will have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 54.2%, and will rise from 0.6% of local advertising spending in 2011 to 3.1% in 2016.
BIA / Kelsey estimates spending on mobile advertising in the US will grow from 1.6 billion in 2011 to 9.9 billion in 2016, well above the 7.7 billion estimated in April this year. Local advertising revenues will reach an important part of that amount. While in 2011 they represented only 41%, in 2016 they will have reached 58%.
Behind this important growth is the increasingly important smartphone penetration, which comScore estimates recently exceeded 51% of all mobile users, along with the growing use of the internet in mobility and the greater availability of mobile advertising spaces.
It is also necessary to take into account the tendency of national brands to carry out local marketing actions. According to a study by the consultancy Balihoo, 47.3% of the national brands expect in 2013 to increase their local marketing budgets, just as they have in 2012, with mobile marketing actions being the most considered option by 35.4% of companies, compared to 32% this year.
According to BIA / Kelsey, growth in local spending will come almost exclusively from the online and digital chapters, with a CAGR of 12.4%, from 21.2 billion in 2011 to 38.1 billion 2016. The more traditional concepts will decrease from 111.5 billion to 109, a fall in CAGER of 0.4%.
In terms of spending share, traditional media will see their weight reduced from 84% of the total in 2011 to 74.1% in 2016, while online and digital media will increase from 16% to 25.9%.
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